US intelligence platform: ongoing fighting with sporadic ceasefires most likely scenario for Sudan

AUSTIN, USA – April 24, 2023

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An American platform for strategic intelligence forecasting published a report in which it developed four scenarios for the development of the war in Sudan over the next days as the clashes between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the army have entered their second week. It predicted a continuation of battles in the country’s cities but with the possibility of occasional ceasefires.

In its assessment of the clashes last week, Strategic Forecasting Inc., also known as Stratfor, said that the situation in Khartoum, Omdurman, and other cities across the country is still volatile and unpredictable. This has prompted foreign governments and humanitarian organisations to prepare for many possible scenarios in the coming days and weeks.

The report, which was published on Thursday, concluded that the war will most likely continue with intense fighting in urban spaces but that international pressure, especially from the United States and Saudi Arabia, could lead to brief pauses to allow for evacuation efforts.

The four scenarios developed by the geopolitical intelligence publisher show different ways in which the fighting may develop in the coming days.

Scenario one: continued fighting but occasional ceasefires

The first scenario, deemed most likely, is that the armed forces and/or the RSF agree to a ceasefire periodically, but that sporadic fighting will continue in urban centres.

The publisher believes that a permanent or indefinite ceasefire is unlikely to be reached, but international pressure to allow evacuations may prompt one or both of the warring parties to stop the fighting for short periods of time.

The report claims that opposition and divisions within the Sudanese army put major constraints on the possibility to establish temporary truces to provide people in combat zones with humanitarian supplies and medical care. Hard-liners in the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) are calling for a complete victory over the Rapid Support Forces and will not rest until that is achieved.

Scenario two: continued fighting, no truces

The second possible scenario is the continuation of heavy fighting in cities without a ceasefire. This is a possibility because of “the relatively equal capabilities of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in terms of the number of personnel and equipment,” which makes a swift victory of either party unlikely.

The report also highlighted the risk that countries in the region may begin to provide their “favoured side” in the conflict with money, weapons, and other forms of military support.

In the past, the RSF have been linked to Russian Wagner mercenaries and their commander, Lt Gen Mohamed ‘Hemeti’ Dagalo, has visited Russia with the support of the mercenaries. Stratfor claimed in its assessment that RSF are also currently receiving support from Wagner in the clashes, which is likely to prolong the fighting in Khartoum.

Scenario three: conflict moves to the countryside

The third scenario would be that one of the two sides will defeat the other in the urban clashes, forcing the latter to seek refuge in rural areas in remote parts of the country. The report describes this as ‘somewhat likely’. In that case, the situation could become similar to the one in South Kordofan and parts of Darfur where holdout rebel movements still hold control of some areas.

Scenario four: permanent ceasefire

The fourth scenario, which is described as an unlikely possibility in the assessment, is that the army and the RSF agree to a permanent ceasefire.

Stratfor believes that there is a very small chance that international pressure, especially from the Arab world, will give way to an indefinite ceasefire between the warring parties in the coming days or weeks. Even if that is achieved, “the risk of violence erupting in the future remains”.