Centre for Humanitarian Change: Darfur faces deepening humanitarian crisis as rains fail

Darfur is facing a potentially devastating humanitarian crisis after the 2026 rainy season failed across much of the region, according to a new update by the Centre for Humanitarian Change – What Works (CHC). The report warns that years of war, displacement, depleted household assets, and restricted movement have left communities with few of the coping mechanisms they would normally rely on during drought.

The update, based on information collected by senior local researchers across all five Darfur states, says the rains arrived late in most areas, beginning only in mid-August, and were highly erratic. Although heavier rainfall was reported across Darfur in late September, the researchers said it came too late to rescue most cereal crops. In some areas, normally impassable wadis remained dry, raising concerns about groundwater recharge and water insecurity extending into 2027.

The impact on agriculture has been severe. North Darfur and large parts of West Darfur have experienced particularly widespread crop failure, while significant areas of Central and South Darfur have also been affected. Farmers have shifted from groundnuts towards drought-resistant millet and sorghum, while some communities have turned to watermelons as a drought adaptation. But the report says high input costs, shortages of seed, insecurity, and displacement have further restricted cultivation.

The war has compounded the effects of the failed rains. In West Darfur, the report says, some farmers were prevented from cultivating in areas designated as military zones by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while there are reports that some ethnic groups have been prevented from accessing their land. Elsewhere, livestock belonging to pastoralist groups have encroached on farmland earlier than usual because of deteriorating pasture. The report says some farmers have abandoned cultivation as a result.

Livestock are also under growing pressure. Conflict has disrupted long-distance migration routes, while failing rains have reduced pasture and water. The report says herds are returning south earlier than usual, increasing pressure on resources and the risk of clashes between pastoralists and farmers. Livestock health is deteriorating, while distress sales, falling prices, and increased mortality have been reported in parts of North and West Darfur.

Water shortages are becoming increasingly acute. In Geneina, the report says, the cost of 400 litres of water rose from SDG 6,000 a year ago to SDG 25,000 in 2026. In some villages in West Darfur, households have travelled up to 7km to find drinking water, a burden that generally falls on women and children.

Food prices are rising as supplies shrink. The price of millet in El Geneina increased by more than 80% during the first three weeks of September, while livestock prices are falling as households sell animals to survive. The report says this is eroding the purchasing power of poorer households and worsening the terms of trade between livestock, wages, and grain. Darfur on the brink.

Communities are already reporting severe food shortages. Some households have reduced their meals to once a day, while people are moving from rural areas towards towns and humanitarian hubs such as Tawila in search of food and assistance. The report says many traditional coping strategies – including grain stores, agricultural migration, home gardens, wild-food collection, and pastoral migration – are no longer available because of war, insecurity, or the drought.

The CHC warns that the consequences could extend well beyond the current harvest, with depleted water tables, seed shortages, further displacement, and increased competition over pasture and water. It recommends urgent humanitarian assistance, greater use of local organisations to overcome access constraints, support for winter cultivation, water infrastructure, veterinary services, local peace committees, cash transfers, and measures to keep food markets functioning.