Yale researchers warn of major military build-up at Ethiopian base near Sudan border

Satellite analysis by the Yale School of Public Health Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) indicates a major escalation in military activity and equipment at an Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) base in Asosa, western Ethiopia, between 23 and 28 August. This buildup is believed to be linked to a potential Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attack on the city of Ed Damazin in Blue Nile state, according the latest HRL report, which cites Radio Dabanga among its sources, released on Friday.

During those five days, researchers identify about 100 newly arrived light technical vehicles, roughly six times the number present on 23 August. Several appear to have weapon mountings, with at least five likely carrying mounted weapons, while a further 15 vehicles are consistent with armoured personnel carriers. Together, the vehicles could carry up to 1,000 personnel, leading Yale HRL to assess that the build-up is sufficient to equip a large regiment- to brigade-sized force.

The arrival of the vehicles coincides with at least five vehicle transporters and 14 trailers. HRL also identifies 15 new cargo containers and at least eight cargo trucks at the base between 23 and 28 August, following the arrival of at least 60 containers between late June and 23 August. A newly completed 70-metre by 17-metre structure is also likely to be a vehicle storage shed.

The build-up comes amid renewed fighting in Sudan’s Blue Nile state. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly launch a counteroffensive in Kurmuk on 10 August, with previous satellite analysis by Yale documenting conflict-related damage in the area, including at Kurmuk hospital and the A40 bridge, as well as signs of looting.

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) sources have previously alleged that the RSF is being resupplied through Asosa airport during its attacks on Kurmuk and Geisan. On 28 August, the RSF claims to have captured two SAF bases in Blue Nile, including the headquarters of the army’s 13th Infantry Brigade in Bakori, and another base in Surkum. Yale says it cannot independently verify the claims from available satellite imagery.

The researchers warn that the military build-up at Asosa increases the likelihood of a significant and imminent RSF attack on Ad-Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile state. They say civilians face a heightened risk of casualties and displacement, including across the border into Ethiopia.

Yale HRL also assesses that the build-up may be intended to draw SAF forces away from North Kordofan, raising the prospect of simultaneous fighting around El Obeid and elsewhere in the state. The threat to civilians is therefore considered elevated across both Blue Nile and North Kordofan.

Read the complete Yale School of Public Health Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) report here