{"id":20120382,"date":"2025-08-31T17:15:34","date_gmt":"2025-08-31T15:15:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dabangasudan.org\/?p=20120382"},"modified":"2025-08-31T17:15:35","modified_gmt":"2025-08-31T15:15:35","slug":"unprecedented-blue-nile-depletion-as-ethiopia-opens-gerd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dabangasudan.org\/en\/all-news\/article\/unprecedented-blue-nile-depletion-as-ethiopia-opens-gerd","title":{"rendered":"Unprecedented Blue Nile depletion as Ethiopia opens GERD"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Reports indicate the waters of the Blue Nile in Sudan have receded to unprecedented levels, disrupting the annual flood season between July and October, when heavy rains from the Ethiopian plateau normally send torrents downstream. Experts say this year\u2019s water recession is caused by the filling of Ethiopia\u2019s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which has now been completed and is slated to be inaugurated in mid-September after withholding vast amounts of floodwater.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopia\u2019s Minister of Water and Energy Habtamu Itefa Geleta, announced the completion of all construction and filling stages, promising a national celebration for the dam\u2019s inauguration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking on state television, he insisted the dam is a \u201ctool for cooperation, exchange of benefits and ending differences\u201d rather than a source of conflict, despite the contestation it has sparked among some in Sudan, Egypt, and other Nile Basin countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u00a0previously insisted<\/a>\u00a0that the dam had not affected Egypt\u2019s Aswan Dam, nor caused any measurable water loss, and reaffirmed that Ethiopia\u2019s development will not come at the expense of its neighbours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an interview<\/a>\u00a0with infrastructure and water resources expert Abubakr Mohamed Mustafa Fadlallah on Friday, he states that GERD \u201chas a great impact on Sudan\u201d due to it holding water during the flood season from July to October. With a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic metres, the dam regulates flows through 13 turbines to generate electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe filling process began five years ago,\u201d Mustafa explained. \u201cThe dam has now reached 637 metres above sea level, storing 69 billion cubic metres. By mid-September, Ethiopia will hit its maximum capacity of 74 billion and officially open the dam.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the topic of the\u00a0Blue Nile\u2019s water level depletion<\/a>, he stressed that Sudan benefits from this regulation. Instead of violent seasonal surges, flows are distributed evenly across the year, which enhance irrigation, electricity generation, and dam management inside Sudan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cooperation and disputes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mustafa noted that Sudan and Ethiopia maintain technical coordination on dam management. \u201cThere are joint committees that have exchanged information for more than 20 years,\u201d he said. Adding that, Ethiopia regularly shares data that affects Sudan\u2019s own El Roseires Dam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While he urged Khartoum to focus on its national interests, he underlined that Egypt remains locked in dispute with Ethiopia\u2019s capital of Addis Ababa, accusing Ethiopia of acting unilaterally and threatening Cairo\u2019s water security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benefits for Sudan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mustafa listed clear benefits: steady water levels that improve irrigation in El Gezira, enhanced agricultural cycles, cheaper electricity, and reduced risk of destructive floods. He argued that consistent flows also enable Sudan to expand fish farming, navigation, and crop production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe GERD holds water that Sudan\u2019s dams cannot,\u201d he said, noting that El Roseires Dam stores just seven billion cubic metres and Merowe Dam 12 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environmental concerns<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On environmental impacts, Mustafa downplayed fears. He said the dam reduces silt by up to 50 per cent, improving dam and irrigation efficiency, especially in El Gezira. He dismissed claims of major fertility loss, stressing that modern fertilisation already drives productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe environmental changes remain local,\u201d he said, comparing the GERD\u2019s effect to other Nile dams built over the past century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calls for a legal agreement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The water resources expert warned that the absence of a binding legal framework among Nile Basin countries remains a major obstacle. He urged Sudan to press for clear protocols to guarantee data-sharing and coordinated management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe GERD experience shows the need for fair regional cooperation,\u201d he said. \u201cConflict will not serve anyone. Cooperation is the only way to secure sustainable development.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risks and warnings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not all experts agree. Sudanese researcher Ahmed Abdualah El Sheikh cautioned that the dam could heighten risks during exceptional floods, such as in 1988. He argued that if gates are suddenly opened, downstream populations could face catastrophic flooding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Sheikh also stressed that Sudan\u2019s northern deserts rely on annual floods to deposit fertile silt. \u201cWithout this renewal, fertility declines and desertification accelerates,\u201d he wrote in a study published on Sudanile<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radio Dabanga previously repo<\/a>rted<\/a>\u00a0on the GERD\u2019s fourth filling in 2023, and the subsequent backlash that arose from it. In an interview with Dr Ahmed El Mufti, international water expert and former member of Sudan\u2019s GERD negotiations team, he warned that the dam\u2019s potential dangers for Sudan are \u201climitless\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Mufti described it as a \u201cwater bomb\u201d that could submerge Sudan if it were to collapse and cautioned that Ethiopia could wield the dam for political purposes. He highlighted that under the\u00a02015 Declaration of Principles<\/a>, Ethiopia is not obliged to pay compensation for any damages, having immunised itself from legal action.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He argued that irrigated agriculture along the Blue Nile would remain at the mercy of Ethiopia without a binding agreement that goes beyond filling and operating rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNo choice but to cooperate\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Water affairs expert Saleh Hamad Omer echoed that Nile Basin countries must cooperate or face mounting crises. \u201cWater has become a political commodity and a powerful diplomatic tool,\u201d he told Radio Dabanga. \u201cWithout joint management, the risk of conflict will only rise.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He pointed to successful international models, such as the Senegal and Mekong rivers, urging the Nile Basin states to follow suit.<\/p>\n